![]() ![]() Here are the teams that would have gained the most if they’d won every “winnable” game - or lost the most had they lost every “losable” one: (As in my previous article, I defined a “coin-flip game” as having a win-probability split of 60/40 or closer at some point within the last five minutes of the game.) But just flipping the result of each coin-flip game doesn’t tell us much. With the advent of legal sports betting across much of the U.S., NFL fans are painfully discovering concepts like “bad beats” and “backdoor covers.” A potential nail-biter can be blown open at the very end with a turnover or return touchdown, and a couple of garbage-time touchdowns can make a blowout look close.Īccording to ESPN Stats & Information Group’s win probability model, 66 out of 272 regular-season games in 2021 could truly have gone either way at the finish. 2 seed instead of missing the playoffs entirely.īut as I wrote in 2020, not all “one-score games” are actually close. Just move each one-score loss into the win column and vice-versa, as Football Outsiders contributor Bryan Knowles did, and the Colts become the AFC’s No. The simplest way? Imagine every bad break had been a good one. ![]() It’s an annual offseason pastime for players, coaches, analysts and fans: figuring out what went wrong for their team that might, this season, go right. He was trying to figure out how he and five other Colts were together at the Pro Bowl, neither recovering from a playoff run nor preparing to play in Super Bowl LVl. “Why are we here?” Indianapolis Colts cornerback Kenny Moore wondered back in February. I think that’s much more important.Indy wishes its luck in toss-up games was more like what the Raiders got last year. I felt what that did for us moving forward. I think the record might have been actually 1-8, 1-9 at some point, we finished 6-10. Having been through it myself as a player, I had a very similar year in Tampa, 6-10, in Tony Dungy’s first year. "Anybody who had thoughts of, ‘Man, you guys shouldn’t be winning these games,’ that’s why you play. "We’re trying to build a winning culture here," Lynch said. Instead, they can focus on finding the best players available to help complement him while others tussle over the likes of UCLA's Josh Rosen, USC's Sam Darnold and other top signal-caller prospects. Then Jimmy Garoppolo arrived and the Niners won five straight and six of their final seven games.Ĭonsidering Garoppolo's ascent, the 49ers didn't seem to mind the lost ground in the draft order since they no longer have a pressing need for a top pick to use on a quarterback. ![]() That the 49ers are even in a position to be picking near the bottom part of the top 10 is surprising considering that they spent most of the first half of the season in a battle with the Cleveland Browns for the No. ![]() San Francisco went on to select tight end Vernon Davis while Oakland picked safety Michael Huff. After the 2005 season, the teams had to go to the luck of the coin with the Niners winning and claiming the No. I'm hearing it's 50-50."īelieve it or not, this isn't the first time the Raiders and Niners have had to go to a coin toss to determine a draft slot. "I'm going to practice all offseason," Lynch said, laughing. The winner of the coin toss will pick ninth and the loser will pick 10th with the Miami Dolphins, who also finished 6-10, alternating between those spots in each round thereafter pending trades.Īsked about the coin toss on Tuesday, Niners general manager John Lynch joked that he'd begun preparations for it. That coin flip is set to take place at the NFL combine in February. McShay's top five needs for every team ».McShay's draft buzz: What I'm hearing ».Draft Herbies: Kirk's best of the best ».NFL draft coverage » | Full order: 1-256 » Rounds 4-7: Sat., noon, ESPN/ABC/ESPN App Rounds 2-3: Friday, 7 p.m., ESPN/ESPN App And since the usual tiebreaker - the aforementioned opponent strength of schedule - is the same, the NFL's method for breaking the tie is down to a good old-fashioned game of chance: a coin toss. More specifically, San Francisco and Oakland are tied for the ninth spot in the order. 512 winning percentages, the Niners and Raiders find themselves tied in the 2018 NFL draft order. But before the Raiders and Niners reconvene between the white lines, they will meet in a far different forum with something other than a spot in their respective division standings on the line.Īfter finishing the 2017 season with identical 6-10 records and playing schedules that had their opponents posting identical. For the final time (at least in the regular season) as Bay Area rivals, the San Francisco 49ers and Oakland Raiders will meet at Levi's Stadium next season. ![]()
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